香港罢课和占中已持续超过12天，现在似乎陷入僵局。多方观察认为，目前香港的局势是江泽民的残余势力一手挑起，来搞乱香港，以达到逼迫习近平停止党内清洗，甚至下台为目的。至于习近平手中是否握有夺回局面的杀手鐧？习近平又是否敢用呢？我们一起来听听专家和学者的分析。
9号，香港学联、学民思潮、和平占中、泛民立法会议员宣布新一轮不合作运动，向政府施压，来配合占中运动，争取真正普选，政务司司长林郑月娥则回应，要将普选议题与占领行动分开处理，否则，会搁置与学联对话。而学联强调，必须留守占领据点，不会轻言撤离，政府若不回应，将不能管治香港。目前的香港局势似乎已经陷入僵局。
旅美学者、中国问题专家章天亮日前撰文，认为江泽民和曾庆红阵营，被习近平在反腐中打得落花流水，因此借曾庆红盘踞已久的香港挑事，使习近平陷入了两难困局。
今年6月，江泽民亲信—负责香港事务的中共政治局常委张德江，联合江的另一亲信，中宣部部长刘云山炮制的所谓〝香港白皮书〞，极大的刺痛了港人，导致51万香港市民走上街头，表达争取真普选的愿望。
8月17号江泽民生日当天，中共地下党又组织号称有1500个团体参加的〝反占中〞游行，激化矛盾。张德江被爆出在其中起到幕后总策划的作用。
随后，张德江以人大决议方式关闭了香港真普选的大门，直接促成香港数十万人的和平〝占中〞，并要求梁振英下台。
专栏作家冉沙洲认为，张德江在香港问题 上连续点起的这〝两把火〞，企图搞乱香港，激怒港人，并且企图让习近平动武，引发血案重演〝六四〞，目的就是为了在国际重压下，轰习近平下台。
大陆独立学者陈瑜：〝我认为江是治国无术扰民有方的这么一个人，实际上香港也是他们内斗的一种表现形式。反腐的大火已经烧到他的大本营了—-江苏和上海，只有把这个局势打乱重来，他才能乱中取胜，浑水摸鱼。〞
占中运动展开后，港警使用胡椒喷雾驱离抗议人群，随后刘云山控制下的《人民日报 》与其他媒体，力挺梁振英，同时曾庆红曾经掌管的国安系统 ，买通黑社会，骚扰、殴打学生和占中人士，以制造暴力冲突，再一次让香港乱局，火上浇油。
9月29号，有海外 媒体爆料，张德江和梁振英曾经建议武力镇压占中运动，但遭到习近平否决。
章天亮指出，如果像〝六四 〞那样开枪镇压，中国 将面临贸易禁运，经济大幅下滑、引发国内的失业与民变；而贪官们在国外的资产也将被冻结。
那么，习近平该如何破局呢？什么才是他的杀手鐧呢？
陈瑜：〝对江来说，他的最大的罪状是迫害信仰团体，比如法轮功，基督教会，第二块就是对民运 人士异议人士的迫害，第三个就是89六四。如果他一旦失去权力，他必然遭到清算。〞
不过到目前为止，习近平对付江泽民的手段还是局限在反腐上。在香港陷入困局之际，9号中纪委将前中共广州市委书记万庆良双开，报送司法。外界解读为，这是习阵营是对江派的一个反击。
时政 评论员夏小强：〝习近平不能把江泽民迫害法轮功 这些反人类罪行曝光的原因，是因为习近平现在所作的事情，都是在中共的党性 原则和组织原则这个框架下做的，那么在公开的时候他就不能去公开，江泽民也是利用这些党性原则来制约习近平，打击习近平。〞
章天亮指出，香港的僵局并非无解，关键在组织者的魄力和胆识。如果能拿住中共〝反人类罪行〞的软肋，香港不仅将得到国际社会的响应和支持，而且将得到天助。
采访编辑刘惠后制
Jiang Zemin Faction Creates Chaos in Hong Kong
How Will Xi Jinping Counterattack?
Occupy Central has lasted for nearly two weeks, the current
situation seems to be seizing up.
Observers say the Hong Kong incident was caused by
Jiang Zemin’s faction in order to mess up Hong Kong
using it to force Xi Jinping to stop clearing out
corrupt officials or force him to step down.
Does Xi have secret method to take control back?
Will he dare to use it?
Let”s take a look at what experts say.
On Sept. 9, Hong Kong Federal of Students (HKFS),
Scholarism, Occupy Central with Love and Peace and
members of Pan-democracy Camp jointly announced
a new round of protest.
It is to pressure the HK government, and to continue Occupy
Central movement in fighting for genuine universal suffrage.
Carrie Lam, Chief Secretary of HK government responded
that it should separate topics of election from Occupy Central.
Otherwise, the dialogue will be cancelled.
However, HKFS stressed that they will stay on the sites, and
not casually leave, if the government ignores them.
The current administration should not be in charge.
The situation in Hong Kong seems to have reached stalemate.
Zhang Tianliang, US-based China affairs expert
in published articles, says the Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong
factions were defeated during Xi Jinping”s anti-corruption,
so the Jiang-Zeng faction creates trouble in Hong Kong,
to put Xi in a dilemma.
In June, Jiang”s ally in Standing Committee, Zhang Dejiang,
who is in charge of Hong Kong affairs,
concocted the”Hong Kong White Paper” with Liu Yunshan,
minister of propaganda.
It deeply roused Hong Kong people”s feelings, which provoked
510,000 citizens to take to the streets in protest.
Protesters expressed that real universal suffrage
is needed in Hong Kong.
Aug. 17 is Jiang Zemin”s birthday, the underground Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) in Hong Kong organized 1,500
groups to participate in an anti-Occupy parade
to intensify differences.
Zhang Dejiang was exposed as the man behind the scenes.
Later, Zhang used National People”s Congress to turn down
HK”s general democratic elections.
It triggered more than tens of thousands
of people to protest.
The protesters requested that Chief Executive
Leung Chun-ying step down.
Writer Ran Shazhou says that Zhang Dejiang aroused
these two incidents intending to mess up Hong Kong
and anger Hongkongers.
It also attempted to force Xi Jinping to use military force,
to repeat the Tiananmen massacre that happened in 1989.
The purpose was to force Xi to step down
under international pressure.
China-based independent scholar, Chen Yu:”I think
Jiang Zemin was good at disturbing civilians but
not good at running the country.
Actually, the Hong Kong situation reveals
one of its internal struggles, and because anti-corruption has
reached their compound—Jiangsu Province and Shanghai.
Only by messing up the situation, can they have a chance to win.”
Hong Kong police used pepper spray to disperse protesters,
later, state-run media, including People”s Daily controlled
by Liu Yunshan, showed strong support for Leung Chun-ying.
Meanwhile, National Security organs that Zeng Qinghong
controlled, hired triads to attack students and
Occupy Central protesters, creating violent incidents
to cause chaos in HK and fuel people”s anger.
On Sept. 29, overseas media exposed Zhang Dejiang
and Leung Chun-ying for suggesting a crackdown on protesters
by the army, which Xi refused.
Zhang Tianliang says that if they had started a crackdown
like the Tiananmen Massacre in 1989,
China would face a trade embargo, its economy would crash,
triggering unemployment and a popular uprising.
Furthermore, corrupt officials” assets abroad would be frozen.
So how does Xi Jinping break up the situation?
What is his secret method?
Chen Yu:”Jiang Zemin”s biggest crime is the persecution of
spiritual groups, ie Falun Gong and the Christian Church.
His second crime is persecution of dissidents,
and the third is linked with the crackdown on Tiananmen
Students Protest in 1989.
Once Jiang loses his power, he definitely will face punishment.”
So far, Xi Jinping deals only with Jiang on a basis
limited to anti-corruption.
On Sept. 9, during Hong Kong”s chaotic situation,
Wan Qingliang, former Guangzhou City secretary
was removed and expelled from the CCP,
then handed over to the court.
Observers analyze that this is the Xi Jinping camp”s
first counterattack against the Jiang faction.
Xia Xiaoqiang, current affairs commentator:”The reason that
Xi didn”t expose Jiang”s crimes of inhumanity,
is because what he has done now is under CCP rule.
When it was necessary to expose Jiang, he didn”t.
So Jiang has taken advantage of CCP rule
to control and attack Xi.”
Zhang Tianliang says that Hong Kong”s situation
has a solution.
The key point depends on whether organizers
have extraordinary strength and courage or not.
If they can target the CCP”s”soft-rib” of INHUMANITY,
Hong Kong will not only receive international support,
but will also get help from the heavens.
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