几个月来飙涨的大陆股市最近出现了变化,1月19号星期一,上海股市终场大跌7.7%,创下7年来最大单日跌幅。有外媒指出,这场让股民们痛心的股市悲剧,是中共证监会为了冷却股市而有意策划的。
《纽约时报》1月19号报导,上海股市19号暴跌7.7%,这是自2008年金融危机以来的最大单日抛盘。不过,中国 证券最高监管人肖钢,在香港一个金融论坛 上发表讲话时,并没有表现出担忧。因为,这场抛盘很大程度上是中共证监会自己策划的。
据大陆《新京报》报导,证监会16号通报了12家券商,因为融资融券业务违规被罚。其中,中信证券、海通证券和国泰君安证券等3家国有企业,存在违规为到期融资融券合约展期问题 ,被暂停新开融资融券客户信用账户3个月。
《纽约时报》透露,瑞士信贷的分析师弗朗西丝.冯(Frances Feng)在一份研究简报中写道,中国股票市场最近的日均交易量,约有18%是借入资金的股票交易,比一年前的这类交易量翻了一番还多。
报导指出,证监会通过对三家最大券商实施融资融券临时禁令,严厉打击了以投资股票为目的的借贷。
中国政经分析人士任中道:〝现在中共的证监会藉用它(两融临时禁令)来进行对股市的一个打压,其实说白了就是它(股市)的风险特别大,谁都可以看的出来,大陆的股市在诡异的飙涨,它完全背离了基本面,股市是经济的晴雨表,但是官方的数据可以看到,中国经济不怎么样,而且20多年来最差的一个成长状态出现了,但是中国股市却在这两三个月来涨得非常厉害。〞
《纽时》报导说,许多经济学家和分析师认为,股市过去三个月近40%的增长不可持续,那是一个待破的泡沫。
大和资本市场(Daiwa Capital Markets)分析师齐晓亮(Leon Qi),向《纽约时报》表示:〝证监会担心,一些证券商在融资融券业务上没有符合规定,如果遇到市场调整,可能会给客户及券商自己造成重大损失,因此证监会‘策划’了一次市场调整。〞
而北京的总体目标,报导援引分析人士的话说,是确保放松货币政策所产生的新资金,能进入生产性的经济行业,而不是进入股票市场。
任中道:〝中共当局对于经济的下滑没有太多的方法,就是靠投资拉动增长,开始进行大规模的投资,中共央行又不断的配合,进行这种货币宽松,房地产也不行了,那资金就都跑到股市去了,所以一天能达到上万亿的成交量,那就出现了一个最大的问题,资金不向实体经济去,不断的在金融系统 内空转,让中共当局非常害怕,所以它也要希望做一个打压的意愿。〞
据《纽时》去年12月29号报导,中国股市一直飙升,这在很大程度上得益于普通炒股者。中国百姓为了赚大钱,纷纷进入股市,有些人动用储蓄存款来炒股,或者卖房炒股。在截至12月12号的一周里,上海和深圳证券交易所的新开股票账户接近90万户,创下7年来新高。
不过,报导指出,由于很多股票交易使用了融资融券,股市里的槓杆太高,所以股市的涨势可能来得快,去得更快。
《新京报》报导说,1月19号收盘后,大陆股民们在网上呐喊:〝今晚天台见!〞
旅美中国社会问题研究人士张健:〝0025其实中共一直以来左右了这场暴涨,因为在前一阶段的货币宽松量化之后,所有的钱全部流向股市,第一批受益人又是中共的权贵本家,当这批人赚完钱之后,后一批的,为这个买单的,不单是老百姓,而且还有一些做小庄的券商们,这些人可能就会首当其冲,做一个替罪羊吧。〞
《新京报》还提到,就在证监会发布处罚的同一天,中信证券披露,大股东中信集团有限公司分别在1月13号至16号四个交易日内,4次减持中信证券的股票,套现金额超过110亿元人民币,被市场人士质疑涉嫌内幕 交易。据了解,中信集团是一家央企。
采访/易如 编辑/陈洁
Black Monday Designed to Cool Chinese Stock Market
After months of soaring, the Chinese stock market took
a different turn on Monday Jan 19.
The Shanghai stock market dived 7.7 percent, the largest one-day
sell-off in seven years.
Foreign media pointed out that this dramatic downturn of the
stock market was planned by the Chinese securities regulator.
Stocks in Shanghai plunged 7.7 percent on Monday,
the largest one-day sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis,
reported New York Time on Monday.
However, China’s top securities regulator, Xiao Gang,
showed no sign of concern about the tumult as he addressed
a financial forum on Monday in Hong Kong,as it is largely an
officially planned move to rein in risky trading.
Beijing News reported that China Securities Regulatory
Commission announced 12 brokerage firms violating
margin financing and securities lending.
Among them, three state-owned brokers — Citic Securities,
Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan Securities — violated rules
by extending lending beyond the contracted term and were
temporarily banned from new margin financing for three months.
Frances Feng, an analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote on Monday
in a research note that margin financing accounted for around
18 percent of the average daily trading volume in China, more
than double what it was a year ago, according to NT Times.
The Securities Regulator’s temporary ban on new margin
financing at three of China’s biggest brokerage firms
is a blow for investors who borrow money to buy shares.
China's political and economic analyst Ren Zhongdao:
"The Securities Regulator is to push down the stock market
with the temporary ban. In fact, it means the risk from stocks
is high. Everyone sees it.
The strange soaring of the Chinese stock market has completely
deviated from the norm. The stock market is a barometer of
the economy.
The official figures show that the Chinese economy is
at its worst in 20 years, and yet, the stock market was
very powerful over the past three months."
Economists and analysts expect the bubble to burst:
even the Composite Index was up nearly 40 percent
in the last three months, said NY Times.
The regulator “worries that some brokers have not been fully
compliant in their margin finance operations, which may lead
to substantial losses of their clients, and brokers themselves,
in case of a market correction,”
said Leon Qi, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets.
“Hence it ‘engineered’ a market correction,” reported NY Times.
Analysts told NY Times that Beijing’s overall goal was to ensure
that new liquidity created by the easing of monetary policy
found its way into productive sectors of the economy,
where it can help create jobs and does
not just get plowed into the stock market.
Ren Zhongdao: "The Communist regime has no other means
of handling the economic downturn but to rely on
investment-led growth.
Together with large-scale investment,
the Bank co-operates with the monetary easing policy.
With the plummeted property market, all the money goes
into stocks which results in trillions of RMB turnover in a day.
Now, here comes a major issue.
The funds were idling in the financial system,
rather than going into the real economy.
It is frightening to the regime. That’s why it has to suppress it."
According to NY Times report on Dec. 29, 2014,
that China’s stock markets have been surging is in large part
to regular investors.
Ordinary Chinese have been piling into the market
by pulling money from savings deposits or cashing out
of property investments as they try to win big.
Investors in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened nearly 900,000
new stock trading accounts in the week
that ended Dec. 12 alone, the most in seven years.
However, the report pointed out, much of the trading is being
done on margin, or by using borrowed funds to buy shares.
There’s so much leverage in the market,
the boom could unwind even faster if sentiment sours.
Beijing News reported that after the close of market
on Jan. 19, many investors cried online:
"See you at the rooftops!"
Chinese social problems researcher Zhang Jian:
"The CCP has been manipulating this surge.
The previous monetary easing policy has led all the money
into the stocks. The CCP bigwigs are the first beneficiaries.
The ordinary people and some small brokers who follow
the trend become the scapegoats.
They bear the brunt of the plunging stock market."
Beijing News also mentioned that the day the securities
regulator issued the ban on brokerage firms,
CITIC Securities also disclosed that its largest shareholder,
CITIC Group Limited, cashed out over 11 billion yuan
of CITIC Securities stock between Jan. 13 and 16.
Insider trading is highly suspected.
The CITIC Group is one of state-owned enterprises.
Interview/Yi Ru Edit/Chen Jie
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