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【新唐人2013年09月07日讯】最近一个月的时间内，香港首富李嘉诚旗下的长江实业、和记黄埔相继宣告，或将抛售百佳超市、上海陆家嘴东方汇经中心OFC写字楼，以及广州西城都荟广场和停车场，涉及金额约为410亿港元。经济学者指出，中国 经济面临崩溃边缘，而美国制造业再次兴起，良禽择木而栖是明智之举。
继出售百佳超市后，10天前，有消息指称，李嘉诚旗下公司长江实业集团打算出售其在上海陆家嘴开发的首个写字楼项目——〝东方汇经OFC〞，售价60亿元人民币以上。作为长江实业在上海的第一栋甲级办公楼，李嘉诚在持有6年后出售让人颇感意外。长江实业承认正在商谈出售该物业意向。
另外，李嘉诚也在迅速出售广州物业。近日，和记黄埔发公告显示，出售雅和50%的股权，而雅和持有广州西城都荟广场，以及位于其地库一层与二层的所有停车场、老年活动中心，公司一共套现约26亿元人民币。
北京天则经济研究所副所长冯兴元分析，李嘉诚从大陆撤资跟大环境有关。
北京天则经济研究所副所长冯兴元：〝现在欧洲的房地产价格偏低，美国的制造业前景非常好。美国经济可能要重新带动整个世界往前走。中国的地位相对而言应该靠后。而且中国自己可能会遇到一些比较严重的经济（危机），财政，金融方面的一些麻烦。比如地方财政的负债率已经非常高。〞
冯兴元表示，中国地方债务现在已经出了很多问题 。很多的不良资产是以银行的以新还旧来掩盖的。地方政府甚至没钱支付给施工队。他认为，中国经济如果有大的波动，可能会造成楼市崩盘。温州的房价现在比原来降了40%，鄂尔多斯房价降到原来的25%的水平，都是跟经济出了大问题有关。
最近，北京一高价新地王诞生，北京农业展览馆一块地皮落槌价每平米高达7.3万元人民币。火热的拍地现场却难见长江实业的身影。长江实业连续缺席北京农展馆地块、上海徐家汇中心项目、杭州华家池等地块拍卖现场。长实董事郭子威以上海徐家汇中心项目为例回应说，这块地仅地价就要投入200多亿，等到上市需要投入400多亿，还要保证在一定时间内有投资回报率，时间长，风险大。
9月4号，中国知名企业家、万科集团董事长王石发出博文：〝精明的李嘉诚先生在卖北京、上海的物业，这是一个信号，小心了！〞
大陆 投资顾问郑志遥表示，李嘉诚撤离大陆证明他目前对中国的经济模式和经济前景是不看好的。
大陆投资顾问郑志遥：〝他的资产变向就是他看到了危险来临，危险来临那就规避风险，提前跑路。我们假设一下，再坚硬的泡沫它也会破灭。可以说我们处于金融危机的边缘。我们就站在火山的旁边，或者是悬崖的旁边，庞大的过剩产能，还有债务问题传播广泛。〞
李嘉诚作为顶端商人，一贯政治经济嗅觉灵敏。1989年 〝六四 事件〞后，当时很多外资企业大举撤资中国时，李嘉诚逆流而上，大举进军中国大陆市场，成为香港在中国大陆的最大投资者。
中国财经网站 《金融界》9月3号以〝首富李嘉诚为何变心了〞发起讨论，分析从李嘉诚的投资节奏可以看出，香港乃至大陆的投资环境已然发生变化，对资金的吸引力不断下降。
香港《环球经济电讯社》指称，李嘉诚与梁振英不和的传闻继续发酵。此外，李嘉诚与中共政界高官的关系正出现微妙的变化。
文章 还引述报导说，李嘉诚与江泽民家族通过现任中共副总理张高丽的担保建立了〝特殊联系〞，然而，2007年，大陆多家媒体却高调批评和记黄埔在北京开发的大型楼盘〝逸翠园〞烂尾楼项目，令李嘉诚声誉严重受损。另有消息说，江下台后，李嘉诚与中共关系逐渐疏离。
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/李智远
Pulling out Capital from China, Li Ka-Shing’s Signal
Over the last month, Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing’s
property companies have declared to
sell properties in mainland China.
The list includes the PARKnSHOP supermarket chain,
Shanghai’s Oriental Financial Center building,
and Guangzhou’s Metropolitan Plaza with its parking lot.
The assets are worth about 41 Billion Hong Kong dollars.
Economists comment that China is on
the brink of economic collapse.
Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing sector is reviving.
That is, Li Ka-shing is making a wise move for himself.
After the sale of the PARKnSHOP chain, Li Ka-shing’s
Cheung Kong (Holdings) made another sale offer.
It was the 35-story Oriental Financial Center building,
located in Shanghai, priced at 6 Billion yuan.
Cheung Kong has held a 6-year ownership of the building,
and said that they have been ready to do business.
Hutchison Whampoa has announced intended sale of
Guangzhou properties at about 2.6 Billion yuan.
The sales include a 50% stake,
Metropolitan Plaza Square, its parking lots, and
a seniors activity center.
Feng Xingyuan is deputy director at Unirule Institute
of Economics in Beijing.
He thinks that Li Ka-shing’s exiting is associated with
the current overall situation.
Feng Xingyuan:Now European housing prices are relatively low.
Whilst the manufacturing outlook in the USA is very good.
The U.S. may once again take the lead in
global economic growth.
China’s role is comparatively weak in this aspect.
Also, China may face some serious economic issues,
as well as some financial troubles.
An example is its high level of local government debt.
Feng Xingyuan adds that a great number of local
non-performing assets have been concealed
by paying old bank loans with new loans.
In some regions, local authorities have no money
to pay construction teams.
Feng believes that any big fluctuation of China’s economy
will trigger a housing market collapse.
Now, Wenzhou’s housing prices have tumbled 60%,
and in Erdos, the prices have dropped 75%.
All these are a result of economic deterioration, he says.
Recently, a land plot in Beijing was sold
for 73,000 yuan per square meters.
Cheung Kong (Holdings) did not show up for the auction.
Prior to this, Cheung Kong had not attended
two auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou.
William Kwok Tsz-wai, director of Cheung Kong,
once responded to a real estate project in Shanghai.
He said that it is a project with long-term return
and high risk.
The project’s going public needs capital injection
of over 40 Billion yuan.
On September 4, China’s property tycoon, Wang Shi,
posted on his micro-blog.
Wang states: Shrewd Mr. Li Ka-shing is selling
his properties in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai.
This is a signal, and pay heed.
Zheng Zhiyao, China’s investment consultant, comments.
Li Ka-shing’s pulling out capital from the mainland
indicates his looking down on China’s economic
model and outlook.
Zheng Zhiyao: His liquidity moves suggests that
he has foreseen the upcoming risk.
The most solid bubble will inevitably burst.
I’d say we’re on the verge of a financial crisis,
just like standing beside a volcano or a cliff.
There exists huge excess capacity,
and massive local government debt .
As a leading businessman, Li Ka-shing has a sharp
nose for politics and economy.
After the CCP’s 1989 Massacre, many foreign businesses
retreated from China.
Whilst Li Ka-shing, with heavy investment, became
the largest Hong Kong investor in mainland China.
On September 3, Jrj.com.cn website released
its feature report.
It was titled “why does richest man Li Ka-shing
change his mind?”
The articles say that Li’s investment paces indicate
that investment attraction in Hong Kong and
in mainland China have declined.
Hong Kong Global Economy Dispatch Agency reports
that rumors have continued, which is about enmity
between Li Ka-shing and Leung Chun Ying.
Besides, Li Ka-shing’s relationship with the Chinese
Communist Party(CCP)’s top level has subtly changed.
The report quotes sources, saying that under
the guarantees of Zhang Gaoli, the CCP Vice Premier,
Li Ka-shing has set up a “special connection” with
the Jiang Zemin family.
In 2007, China’s media launched a wave of attacks
against an unfinished building project in Beijing,
developed by Li Ka-shing’s Hutchison Whampoa.
Li Ka-shing’s reputation was thus severely damaged.
Media reported that after Jiang Zemin’s retirement,
Li Ka-shing was gradually alienated from the CCP.
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