中国 房地产开发商为了实现今年的销售目标，今年第三季度或许被迫大幅降价。截至5月初，北京新建商品住宅的〝库存量〞突破7万套，上海新建商品住宅的存量为65987套，合计面积1026万平方米，存量同样维持在历史 高位。而广东深圳的库存也罕见的突破了5万套。
今年前五个月，很多房产开发商达不到30%的销售目标。国家统计局上周五表示，1-5月中国商品房销售额同比下降8.5%。
〝北京大学光华管理学院〞博士生导师王建国表示，因为市场对房地产的未来 是看淡的，目前中国大陆 基本上没有对房地产投资的需求。
北京大学光华管理学院博士生导师王建国：〝就只有极少部分刚需的，一般有刚需的都是收入比较低，很难有钱去买比较高价的房子。就我现在所看到的，以前每天都是打电话问我卖不卖房子，现在接到电话都说你买不买房子。〞
而全中国的商品房销售价格也在持续下跌， 1-5月份，中国的商品房和住宅销售平均价格，同比继续下跌，跌幅分别为0.7%和1.2%。根据中国房地产指数系统 —-〝百城价格指数〞，5月100个城市的住宅平均价格，环比首次出现下跌，跌幅为0.32%。
中国十大房地产企业之一〝恒大地产〞，上月初宣布降价15%。英国《路透社》分析，为了实现今年的销售目标，今年第三季度,中国房地产开发商或许被迫大幅降价，和大范围促销或改变发展战略。
大陆经济评论家〝牛刀〞指出，今年9月后，中国楼市第一把断头刀，可能会开始开铡，而一线城市会成为开铡的首选城市。
大陆经济评论家牛刀：〝中国这个泡沫太大了，哪个城市都有泡沫，不是说泡沫就发生在某一个城市，它是货币问题 ，它印钞印多了，印多了以后这些钱大多跑到这个房地产上去了，所以房地产价格特别高，那现在这些资金在出逃，出逃以后它肯定现在要卖掉房地产的，没什么人接盘，大家都降低价格卖嘛。当人民币在升值的时候，人民预期房价还要涨，所以全部冲进房地产，现在人民币在开始贬值，贬值一看，好多人就退出来了，房价肯定要跌。〞
另一方面，尽管前一阵中共央行，要求各商业银行及时发放审批和发放个人住房贷款，但房地产整体资金来源的增速还是继续放缓，定金及预付款同比降幅扩大，今年1-5月份，房地产开发企业总资金来源合计46728亿元，同比增长3.6%，增速则持续回落。其中国内贷款和自筹资金同比增幅明显，利用外资同比继续大幅下降。
目前，很多房地产开发商，已经采取送装修和停车位等促销手段吸引买家。中国最大型的民营房地产开发商之一〝绿城中国〞，推出了新一轮促销，向现有客户分发总计300亿元的现金券，用于下次购房。
陕西西安市民王兰：〝我们这块有一个经济适用房的开放区，它的楼盘是到明年上半年才能完成施工，但是它现在已经开始在各个小区门口摆个桌子，塔个帐篷大量的散发传单，就说只要是本地人都可以买，虽然也要开一些证明，但这些证明都是走形式的，它都可以帮你开。〞
陕西西安市民王女士透露，经济适用房属于国家福利房，往年即使条件符合，也需要关系才能申请到，今年这种大面积的促销，她认为是房市降价的标志。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/陈建铭
Chinese Real Estate Sales Could Dive In Third Quarter
In order to meet target sales, Chinese real estate developers
may be forced to take deeper price cuts.
As of early May, Beijing had an inventory of more than
70,000 new commodity houses, Shanghai 65,987.
That was a total of 10.26 million square meters of area,
a new record high.
Inventory in Shenzhen was also high, more than 50,000.
Many Chinese property developers achieved less than 30%
of their target sales in the first five months.
China’s revenues from property sales dropped 8.5% in the first
five months year on year, said the National Bureau of Statistics
on Friday.
Professor Wang Jianguo of Guanghua School of Management,
Peking University, indicates the real estate market is down
due to a lack of demand.
Wang Jianguo: “There are only immediate demands by mostly
lower income people.
They typically won’t be able to afford higher price housing.
As I know well, people used to call me and ask if there’s
any house for sale. Now, they ask if there’s a need for housing.”
The property sale prices have also continued to fall.
Between January and May, the average sale prices
of commercial and residential have dropped year on year,
by 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively.
According to 100 City Price Index Report, the average
residential houses prices of 100 cities have dropped month
on month for the first time, by 0.32%.
One of China’s top ten real estate companies, Evergrande Real
Estate, announced a 15 percent price cut early last month.
Reuters analyzed, Chinese property developers may be forced
to embrace steeper price cuts, broader promotions or a change
in strategy in the third quarter as they scramble to meet
2014 sales targets.
Economic commentator Niu Dao predicts the first guillotine’
may take effect this September targeting the first-tier cities.
Niu Dao: “This bubble is too big. The bubble exists in every
city in China. It won’t target one particular city.
It is a problem of currency.
Too much money printing has ended up in real estate,
and brought up the prices of real estate.
Now that these funds are fleeing, the property has to be sold.
But no one will buy it, because everyone is cutting prices.
When the yuan was good, people rushed into real estate
expecting prices to go up.
Now with the yuan down, many people quit the real estate
market. Property prices are sure to fall.”
Before, the Chinese Central Bank had required timely
approval and issuance of housing loans to all commercial banks,
real estate funding sources continue to experience slow growth.
The year on year decline in deposits and prepayments continues.
For the first 5 months this year, total funding for property
development was more than 4.6 trillion yuan, an increase
of 3.6% from last year, however, the growth rate continued
to fall.
In which, apparent growth was seen in domestic lending
and self-financing, while foreign investment declined sharply
year on year.
At present, many developers try to attract buyers with
promotions such as free remodeling and free parking space.
China’s largest private property developer, Greentown China,
launched a new round of promotion.
A total of 30 billion yuan of coupons good for the next purchase
will be distributed to existing customers.
Wang Lan, Xi’an citizen:There was a piece of open area
for affordable housing.
The construction will not be ready until next year.
But they have already started with a booth distributing flyers
stating any locals are qualified to purchase.
Proven documents are needed, of course, but, it’s just a
formality. They can help you to get approval.
Ms. Wang reveals that the affordable housing is part of the
state welfare.
In the past, even qualified buyers needed to go through
connections to apply.
This large promotion is to her an indication of falling prices.
Interview & Edit/LiYun Post-Production/chenjianming
本文标签：中共, 新唐人, 王建国, 英国, 路透社
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