Friday, February 13, 2015

【禁闻】美智库:共军存致命弱点 难赢战争


日前,美国一家研究机构受委托推出最告,指称中共军队在指挥结构和战斗力方面能力低下,很难打赢现代化战争。分析认为,中共军队丛生、买官卖官猖獗,是导致军队缺乏战斗力的致命弱点之一。


美国《彭博社》2月12号报导,美国智库兰德公司(Rand Corp.)受美国委托,就中共军队对台作战军事部队、海军、海防通讯线路以及非战争军事行动部门进行调查后,推出一份综合报告。


报告称,中共军队存在潜在的致命弱点,这些弱点将限制军队在未来 战争和冲突中的行动和作战能力。弱点主要表现在两大方面:一是指挥结构陈旧过时,指挥人员素质低下,整体缺乏专业能力以及腐败盛行;二是战斗力低下,包括后勤保障不足,战略空运能力薄弱,能执行特殊任务的战机数量有限,缺乏空中防御能力等。


报告说,中共军队高层 深知这些弱点。美国军事分析家认为,这些弱点使中共军队不能在现代化信息条件下打赢战争,也难以完成其他使命,加大了同发达工业国家的差距,尤其同美国军力的差距。


》总编辑伍凡 表示,中共90年代已实行军事现代化,近几年军费呈两位数增长,它还提出〝超限战〞,如果发生战争,中共会采取人们想像不到的一切手段发动攻击。


美国中文 杂志《中国 事务》总编辑伍凡:250〝中共现在大力的、全力的发展军事,它不仅仅在网络上,它还发展远程核导弹,可以从中国打到美国,它正在发展,发展巨型的核潜艇,可以偷偷的到了美国边境发导弹打美国,这个它正在发展中 间啊。〞


不过,报告认为,虽然中共海军在海上舰隻以及潜艇方面增强了作战能力,一旦进行综合编队,使之成为复杂的武器装备平台时,中共海军还不足以操作和驾驭它们;中共空军也缺乏参与 特殊行动的关键性空中装备以及极限训练。虽然中共国防工业过去取得了一些进步,但目前正面临腐败、缺乏竞争力、垄断、成本过大、质量控制、官僚化、采购系统 过时等问题


2月11号,英国智库国际战略研究所(IISS),发布全球军事能力与防务经济的年度报告称,亚洲的整体国防开支一直在增加,而中国国防开支,2010年占据亚洲军费开支总量的约28%,去年份额已增至38%左右。但去年12月底《军情观察室》报导,中共成都军区在内部评估中承认,中共军队部分战斗力已不及印度。


旅美原大陆历史 学教授认为,中共军队腐败丛生、买官卖官猖獗,也是导致军队缺乏战斗力的致命弱点之一。


旅美原大陆历史学教授刘因全:〝部队它是一个战斗团体,如果部队完全腐败了之后,根本没有什么战斗力了,你想买官鬻爵这些部队怎么能上战场?像一个军长,他这个官是多少百万买过来的,那他还要继续的去贪污,把投资的这个钱再收回来。他怎么可能英勇的去战斗,万一牺牲了以后,他这个投资不是白投资了吗?〞


中共军队腐败由来已久,中共前党魁1989年 执政后,更是利用加官晋爵、纵容军队走私、贪污等手段收买军心。


去年,江氏军中大员、中共总后勤部原副部长谷俊山和原中共军委副主席徐才厚落马。2月10号,有消息称另一名原中共军委副主席郭伯雄及其儿子、浙江省军区少将也被拘查,而且徐才厚、郭伯雄两人互相勾结卖官敛财,〝少将五百万,中将千万〞;还披露,徐才厚、谷俊山贪腐金额超过300亿元人民币。


中共退役少将罗援曾对大陆媒体说:军费再多,被这些污吏几十亿、上百亿的侵占,永远不够。贪腐不除,中国未战先败。


采访编辑/李韵


U.S. Think Tank: PLA has "Potentially Serious Weaknesses"


A report commissioned by a U.S. congressional committee

shows that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) isn't ready to

win wars with its outdated command structure

and low combat capability, mainly blamed on rampant

military corruption and the trade of military positions

according to analysts.


The US think tank, Rand Corp. recently reported a research

commissioned by a U.S. congressional committee regarding

the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Taiwan contingencies,

maritime claim missions, the protecting of sea-line

communications and some non-war military operations,

said Bloomberg.


The PLA suffers from "potentially serious weaknesses"

that could limit its ability to conduct the operations required

to fight and win future conflicts, and its shortcomings

fall into two broad categories, says the report.

"It's hampered by an outdated command structure,

the poor quality of its personnel, a lack of professionalism,

and corruption," reported Bloomberg.


"Its other weakness is combat capability, which covers

logistical weaknesses, insufficient strategic airlift capabilities,

limited numbers of special-mission aircraft and deficiencies

in fleet air defense and antisubmarine warfare," it continued.


PLA leaders are aware of its shortcomings, says Rand Corp.,

with military analysts referring to the "two incompatibles"

reflecting their valuation that the army was still unable to

win a war under "informationized" conditions

and successfully carry out other missions.


"These shortcomings contribute to a "large gap" between

China and the militaries of developed countries,

especially the U.S.," says Bloomberg.


Chris Wu, editor-in-chief of China Affairs magazine, says

the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) military modernization

has been implemented since the 1990's.


China's military spending has shown double-digit growth

in recent years.

The regime has even proposed "unrestricted warfare";

should war erupt, it will attack with all unimaginable means.


Chris Wu: "The CCP has engaged in military development

vigorously, from cyber-war to remote nuclear missiles that

target the U.S. and giant submarines that can sneak into

the U.S. border and fire missiles; they're all in development."


The paper highlighted that the PLA Navy boasts impressive

capabilities, but remains challenged when it comes to

integrating such complex modern weapons and equipment

and personnel aren't equipped to operate or maintain them.

The air force also faces a shortage of key special-mission

aircraft and "unrealistic" training.

The defense industry, while having made "tremendous

progress," suffers from corruption, lack of competition,

entrenched monopolies, delays and cost overruns, quality

control problems, bureaucratic fragmentation, an outdated

acquisition system, and so on.


On Feb. 11, the British think tank, International Institute

for Strategic Studies, released their 2015 annual report

on global military capabilities and defense economics.


Overall defence spending has increased in Asia, it said.


In 2010, China accounted for around 28% of the Asian total;

by 2014 its share had increased to around 38%.

But the Observation Post Of Military Situation by Phoenix TV

revealed in late Dec. 2014, that the Chengdu Military Region

had acknowledged in an internal assessment that the

combat capability of China's military was less than India.


Former history professor Liu Yinquan believes that

the PLA suffers mainly due to their rampant corruption

and the buying and selling of rankings.


Prof. Liu Yinquan: "Once the military is corrupt, it loses its

combat power; how can troops succeed on the battlefield

if they're led by officers who paid their way there?"


"If a commander has paid millions to get his ranking, he has

to get his investment back through continued corruption."

"How would he conduct any heroic fight?

—If he dies, his investment will be gone."


Corruption in the PLA has its history; since Jiang Zemin

took over the leadership in 1989, he further condoned

military smuggling and corruption to promote personnel

in order to win their support.


Jiang's two main cronies in the military, Gu Junshan,

the former vice minister of General Logistics and Xu Caihou,

the former Central Military Commission vice chairman

were sacked last year.

On Feb. 10, sources said Guo Boxiong, a CMC vice chairman

and his son, Guo Zhenggang, the rear admiral of Zhejiang

Military District were both arrested for investigation.


Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong have colluded and engaged in

the trading of officer titles with a price tag of five-million

for rear admiral and tens-of-millions for lieutenant general.


Hong Kong media also revealed that the money involved

in such tradings is as much as 30-billion yuan.


Retired rear general Luo Yuan told mainland media that

the military budget will never be enough with there being

billions upon billions lost in embezzlement.


As long as corruption and bribery exist,

China is as good as defeated even without a fight.


Interview & Edit/LiYun


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